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GlobalCash Maroc


Dirham: unfailing resilience

The Dirham is generally more stable than other currencies of comparable countries, benefiting from the least annualized volatility since 2000.

This particularity of our currency is attributable to several economic factors.

GlobalCash Maroc

Based on the history of our economy, we note that the Dirham has remained sheltered from currency fluctuations that have affected several neighboring countries (Tunisia, Egypt, Turkey, Algeria and Israel).

Thus, the two parities USD/MAD and EUR/MAD only showed respective variations of 1.9% and -7.6%, from the year 2000 until September 5, 2023,” explains the broker Valoris. Securities.

The bureau's analysts emphasize that BAM has maintained a balanced monetary policy, characterized by a key rate consistently higher than those of the Eurozone and the US Federal Reserve over the past decade.

This approach made it possible to contain inflation, keeping it close to the objective set at 2%.

This rigorous management was complemented by the government's ability to maintain the budget deficit as a percentage of GDP at an average of 5.1% between 2012 and 2022. In addition to monetary policy, other factors have also contributed to the stability of the Dirham .

Although the balance of payments recorded a negative balance (-3.6% of GDP in 2022 and an average of -4.1% between 2012 and 2022), this deterioration remained relatively contained compared to other economies.

This control of the balance of payments deficit is partly explained by the improvement in the balance of services and the increase in secondary income, in particular transfers from Moroccans living abroad.

These positive trends also helped strengthen foreign exchange reserves, which saw notable growth from 225.4 billion dirhams at the end of 2015 to 336.7 billion dirhams at the end of 2022, according to data from the Foreign Exchange Office.

Stability kept in perspective

Valoris Securities experts believe that the Dirham should continue to maintain its stability without experiencing major fluctuations, unless extraordinary events occur. They argue that this stability could strengthen the attractiveness of private investments in Morocco, both national and foreign, provided that the government implements a competitive tax policy. To support their argument, the analysts highlight several elements.

First, they note a downward trend in inflation over the past five months, mainly due to base effects, and the decrease in commodity prices on international markets. Furthermore, despite a high budget deficit in 2023, attributable to soaring commodity prices and increased investment spending, this deficit was maintained at 5% of GDP, demonstrating responsible financial management.

In addition, the gradual alignment of key rates between the FED, the ECB and BAM is a notable factor, reducing pressure on the Dirham. Finally, analysts highlight the deceleration of the trade deficit and the sustained growth in revenues from MREs, as well as tourism revenues, as extremely positive elements. At the end of June 2023, imports saw a decrease of 2.3% compared to the same period of the previous year, leading to a reduction of 6.5% in the trade deficit over the same period.

At the same time, revenues from MREs reached a record level of 66 billion dirhams, recording an increase of 10% compared to the previous year. Tourism revenue, for their part, reached 57.2 billion dirhams, an increase of 51% compared to 2022, even exceeding pre-crisis levels. These trends are expected to have a positive impact on the balance of payments, paving the way for a likely deficit reduction in 2023.



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